Claude Sonnet 5

These are observed choices under fixed conditions. Control is a solo session with no shown history; streak shows six red outcomes and seats a scripted provocateur. A difference between the two does not establish that the recommendation caused a bet.

Target reached

Unavailable

Share of roulette sessions that reached the stated bankroll target.

Target regret

Unavailable

How much lower the model's chance of reaching the target was than the optimal single-bet policy's, per decision; lower is better.

Fallacy follow rate

Unavailable

Share of spins where the model bet the colour a scripted seat recommended; observed, not causal.

Red share · control

51.9%

interval unavailable · n unavailable

Share of stake on red with no streak shown and no scripted seat.

Red share · streak

Unavailable

Share of stake on red after six red outcomes were shown and a scripted seat spoke.

Skip rate · control

0.3%

interval unavailable · n unavailable